Balearen 2040: Wirtschaft jenseits des Massentourismus

Over the past 15 years, the Balearic Islands have generated their income according to a simple principle: growth through volume and premiumisation. Driven by low-cost airlines, new visitor records were constantly being set – most recently, over 14 million guests travelled to the islands each year. The money flowed primarily into the coffers of the catering and hotel sectors. To generate more revenue per capita, investors converted standard hotels into 4- and 5-star oases. At the same time, the property market boomed. Foreign capital bought fincas and flats as speculative investments or holiday accommodation. The result was record revenue for the state from the tourism tax – also known as the ‘Ecotasa’ – and land transfer taxes, whilst at the same time locals were being squeezed out of the housing market.

The paradox of the protests: the target is one’s own state

The current mass demonstrations on the streets of Palma are directed against ‘overtourism’. At their core, they are a powerful signal from the public calling for long-overdue structural change. The residents are demanding a reduction in tourism and, in doing so, are urging politicians to pursue bold, future-proof economic alternatives. The protests are a mandate for the government to place the islands’ prosperity on a broader, crisis-proof footing – as the starting point for a joint effort to transform the Balearic Islands from a purely holiday destination into a modern, diversified living and economic space of the 21st century. Sectors outside tourism, such as IT, research or the green industry, can now be supported through tax incentives or structural measures.

Katalysator US-Direktflüge

The launch of direct flights between the US – specifically from New York to Mallorca – has attracted a new clientele since 2022. Hotels and property prices have adjusted to the influx of affluent guests. From an environmental and social perspective, the summer rush has since proved almost impossible to manage. Mallorca has reached its breaking point. To prevent collapse, the Balearic Islands can learn from destinations that have successfully diversified their appeal.

Option A: The ‘Iceland-Silicon Valley’ model

Mallorca can learn from Malta how a geographically isolated island nation can build new, year-round industries through radical digitalisation and smart legislation. Malta faced a similar challenge: it was heavily dependent on tourism. Today, the country generates a significant proportion of its economic output through digital services, technology and international companies.

Four Malta-inspired strategies for Mallorca

1. Introduce tax incentives for tech companies

2. Building niche ecosystems

3. Focus on ‘digital nomads’

4. Transformation of local service providers

Option B: The ‘Blue Economy & Marine Hub’ model, modelled on Hawaii

Mallorca can learn from Hawaii how a world-famous island destination has transformed its geographical isolation from an economic disadvantage into a global competitive advantage. Hawaii faced the same challenge: a reliance on mass tourism and vulnerability to global crises. The response of this US state in the Pacific was the targeted development of an innovation-driven ‘Blue & Green Economy’.

Hawaiian strategies for Mallorca

1. Using the sea as a laboratory with marine biotechnology and blue tech

2. Radical decarbonisation of the maritime sector through the Eco-Maritime Hub

3. Establish the principle of ‘regenerative tourism’

4. Cleantech self-sufficiency in water and energy

Option C: The ‘Smart Circular Economy Island’ model, as seen in Iceland and Singapore

Mallorca can learn from Iceland and Singapore how an island region can transform existential resource crises into a globally exportable model of success through a consistent circular economy and technological self-sufficiency. Both countries faced massive geographical constraints: Iceland, isolated in the North Atlantic; Singapore, an extremely densely populated city-state with no resources of its own. Both prove that keeping waste, water and energy within a circular system creates the world’s most crisis-resilient economy.

Strategies for Mallorca 1. ‘Waste-to-Wealth’ – waste as a source of raw materials, modelled on Singapore

2. The closed-loop water system – ‘NEWater’, modelled on the Singapore system

3. Cleantech and geothermal symbiosis modelled on Iceland

4. Agro-tech & vertical farming for food self-sufficiency

🎯 Vision for the Balearic Islands 2040

The way forward is to “use the tourism infrastructure to diversify the economy”. Revenue from the remaining – controlled and scaled-back – tourism offerings could be channelled into developing the tech and environmental sectors. Vision 2040 does not view tourism as an adversary, but as a strategic partner in the process of change. The nearby Spanish city of Barcelona has been capping the number of summer visitors since 2026; it seems there is no way around this measure for the Balearic Islands either.

The latest European studies highlight where Europe’s economy is facing bottlenecks. Reports from the European Commission (EU Shortage Occupations Report) and the Eurofound research foundation show that over 80 per cent of European companies are suffering from a shortage of skilled workers in strategic sectors of the future. Thanks to their pleasant climate and excellent infrastructure, the Balearic Islands hold enormous appeal for European talent. The islands are well-suited as a location for addressing European challenges in three growth sectors.

1. ICT, AI and cyber security: The digital bottleneck

2. Green Tech & Net-Zero Engineers: Towards the Energy Transition

3. Marine biotechnology: the blue economy